QB · Texas
Arch Manning
JR · 6'4", 222 lb · SEC · #16
From New Orleans, LA
NFL comparison Drake Maye
Overall · Week 5
No. 5–
Quarterbacks
No. 1–
Draft range
- Top 5
- 54%
- Top 15
- 96%
- Round 1
- >99%
Projected range: Picks 2–12
Show as table
| Pick | Chance |
|---|---|
| 1st | 7.1% |
| 2nd | 11.8% |
| 3rd | 12.2% |
| 4th | 12.1% |
| 5th | 10.9% |
| 6th | 9.6% |
| 7th | 7.7% |
| 8th | 6.1% |
| 9th | 5.1% |
| 10th | 4.0% |
| 11th | 3.2% |
| 12th | 2.3% |
| 13th | 1.6% |
| 14th | 1.2% |
| 15th | 1.0% |
| 16th | 1.0% |
| 17th | 0.8% |
| 18th | 0.5% |
| 19th | 0.4% |
| 20th | 0.3% |
| 21st | 0.2% |
| 22nd | 0.1% |
| 23rd | 0.2% |
| 24th | <0.1% |
| 25th | 0.1% |
| 26th | 0.1% |
| 27th | 0.1% |
| 28th | <0.1% |
| 29th | <0.1% |
| 30th | <0.1% |
| 31st | <0.1% |
| 32nd | <0.1% |
Assumes he enters the 2027 draft. Based on board rank, positional value and team needs, with uncertainty that narrows as the season goes on. How this works
2026 stats
- Passer efficiency rating141.247th
- Yards per pass attempt7.537th
- Completion percentage63.846th
- Passing yards86538th
- Passing touchdowns752nd
- Interceptions thrown3—
- Interception rate2.636th
- Rushing yards7954th
Percentiles compare him with every qualifying FBS player at his position: QB with 14+ pass attempts per team game (133 players). 4 games played.
Next game
at Oklahoma
Week 6 · Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET
Game log
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Rating | Y/A | Cmp% | Yds | TD | INT | INT% | Rush yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Texas State | W 59–7 | 210.4 | 11.3 | 74.1 | 305 | 4 | 1 | 3.7 | 6 |
| 2 | vs  Ohio State | W 24–23 | 109.9 | 5.3 | 62.2 | 195 | 1 | 1 | 2.7 | 24 |
| 3 | vs  UTSA | W 30–6 | 113.3 | 5.0 | 51.5 | 164 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 50 |
| 4 | @  Tennessee | W 20–17 | 152.0 | 10.6 | 73.7 | 201 | 0 | 1 | 5.3 | -1 |
Rank history
Ranked No. 5 on the first board of the season. The chart fills in as the board updates each week.
Most likely landing spots
Share of simulated drafts in which each team picks him, combining every team's pick odds, needs and his projected range.
Fit with every team
New York Jets86 Excellent
Fills the Jets' biggest need at QB; 66% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 3–7).
Arizona Cardinals74 Strong
Fills the Cardinals' biggest need at QB; 41% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 4–12).
Miami Dolphins69 Strong
Fills a top need for the Dolphins at QB; 56% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 2–9).
Tennessee Titans61 Strong
QB is a moderate need for the Titans; 76% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 1–5).
Cleveland Browns54 Solid
Fills the Browns' biggest need at QB; 13% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 11–20).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers46 Solid
QB isn't a priority for the Buccaneers; 51% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 3–10).
All 29 teams with a first-round pick
Pittsburgh Steelers42 Fair
Fills a top need for the Steelers at QB; 11% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 12–23).
New Orleans Saints40 Fair
QB isn't a priority for the Saints; 35% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 5–14).
Los Angeles Chargers37 Fair
QB isn't a priority for the Chargers; 50% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 3–10).
Carolina Panthers37 Fair
QB is a moderate need for the Panthers; 16% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 9–21).
Houston Texans36 Fair
QB isn't a priority for the Texans; 29% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 6–16).
Atlanta Falcons33 Fair
QB is a moderate need for the Falcons; 12% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 11–24).
Washington Commanders30 Fair
QB isn't a priority for the Commanders; 35% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 5–14).
New York Giants23 Poor
QB isn't a priority for the Giants; 12% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 11–22).
Detroit Lions22 Poor
QB isn't a priority for the Lions; 11% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 11–23).
Minnesota Vikings21 Poor
QB is a moderate need for the Vikings; he's very unlikely to last to their most likely range (picks 23–30).
Las Vegas Raiders16 Poor
QB isn't a priority for the Raiders; 14% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 10–20).
Philadelphia Eagles12 Poor
QB isn't a priority for the Eagles; 11% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 11–24).
Cincinnati Bengals11 Poor
QB isn't a priority for the Bengals; 10% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 12–24).
Seattle Seahawks11 Poor
QB isn't a priority for the Seahawks; he's very unlikely to last to their most likely range (picks 23–30).
Dallas Cowboys6 Poor
QB isn't a priority for the Cowboys; 5% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 14–25).
Baltimore Ravens6 Poor
QB isn't a priority for the Ravens; 5% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 16–27).
Denver Broncos5 Poor
QB isn't a priority for the Broncos; 5% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 16–27).
New England Patriots4 Poor
QB isn't a priority for the Patriots; 4% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 18–28).
Chicago Bears4 Poor
QB isn't a priority for the Bears; 4% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 17–27).
Kansas City Chiefs2 Poor
QB isn't a priority for the Chiefs; 2% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 20–29).
Buffalo Bills2 Poor
QB isn't a priority for the Bills; 2% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 21–29).
Jacksonville Jaguars2 Poor
QB isn't a priority for the Jaguars; 2% chance he's available in their most likely range (picks 22–30).
San Francisco 49ers1 Poor
QB isn't a priority for the 49ers; he's very unlikely to last to their most likely range (picks 23–30).
Fit (0–100) combines the team's need at his position (40%), how well his projected range lines up with the team's likely pick (30%) and the chance he's still available there (30%).